Oct 28th 2009

Severe threat possible ahead of developing severe squall line! This line is just starting to gain momentum. Threat could intiate an on going severe weather threat that may be on going through thursday! The severe potential tonight still remains out ahead of this developing line with any discrete cells that can form. Tornadoes are possible with any of these discrete cells but a qlcs or quasi linear convective system still has the potential at forming a tornado with the large shear in place.

Tomorrow looks even more potent as the system moves east. With an ongoing line expected the same story will apply. Discrete cells ahead of the line rooted in the boundry layer are going to have ample shear to develop low level rotation! This is an on going threat as low deepens and continues to pull in moisture along the gulf! Friday the models begin to diverge a little! But overall picture is pretty clear! Below is an image of the 850 millabar winds. Showing a very fast low level jet up around sixty knots (around 70 mph) thats a WOW! So any updrafts that do get going could just be sheared apart. But if any vigorous convection can get going and sustain itself on the partially moist LLJ! Look out!

Another thing to note is the partially backed but strong low level flow, which is leading to largely curved hodographs! Hodographs that denote definite tornado potential enviroments. Low level advection should not be an issue with a large deepening low, despite models. The main problem the models seem to suggest, is the upper level temps are just to warm. If this changes we could have a large outbreak of severe weather on our hands friday. If not the severe potential is going to be quite limited.

Radar image around 9:27pm is of a squall line forming in western TX. This could be ongoing through tomorrow!