Large trough and associated upper level low moves in over the upper northwest. At the surface a 999mb low is moving east through the northern plains. With an occluded front/surface trough extending north to another low center in Canada. Backing winds at surface look to converge with south westerly winds behind front later this afternoon. This should act to initiate storms, with forecasted dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s ample moisture should be in place over ND and SD!
500mb RUC forecast for 20z showing the trough and associated jet streak. Low level jet should increase late afternoon to around 30 kts increasing low level shear. This coupled with steep mid level lapse rates and surface temps reaching the upper 70s lower 80s CAPE values should reach 2000 j/kg.
Hodograph for 23z southwestern ND. Note the turning and relatively decent speeds at lower levels. Should be an interesting enviroment for any storms in this area. Tornadic supercells are going to be very likely today!
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