Severe weather in January

Their is a high probability for severe weather on Monday, January the 7th. The areas involved as of right now look to be Arkansas, Missouri, into Illinois and maybe Indiana. Although the most severe portion will be southern Missouri into Arkansas. UPR level trough with embedded short waves is forcast to approach the eastern plains on Monday.

Below is the temperature forecast valid 12z Monday, 8:00am eastern. Below is the forcasted dewpoint temperature valid 12z. This is amazing for January! MLCAPE values are forcasted to reach around 1000 j/kg.
More organized storms may be able to become more surfaced based late in the event south into Arkansas. The southern portion of the forcasted area will have the strongest area in the LLJ. Therefore they will have better deep layer shear to deal with. All this should develop well east of a trailing cold front associated with surface low.

It should make for an interesting day. And in January this will be, if everything pans out, very rare. This has the potential to be a historic event!