Difficult forecasting ahead.

Models are now having trouble picking out whats going to happen at anytime in the near future. Why this is happening is unknown. One thing you can always rely on is the three ingredients as is needed by severe weather. Instability, shear, and lift. The present system is one that is not giving clear signs of evolution. The only thing that is clear is that its spring and severe weather is likely somewhere in the united states everyday, usually. Most likely spring is still trying to set in in some places leaving everything backed up like last year. Indiana has not really had a normal spring yet. With snowfall in april and temps being wild everywhere, its no surprise to see anomalous things popping out of the models lately.

Below is an GFS (500mb heights and wind) model image grab valid for 21z friday may 1st. It shows a huge hudson bay vortex that is usually associated with blocking patterns. This can be bad for chase prospects but in this case it is hard to determine.